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Schwyzer, E. A. Debrunner. 1950. Griechiesche grammatik , Vol. 2 . München.

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Sinha, C. T. Kuteva. 1995. Distributed spatial semantics. Nordic Journal of Linguistics 18: 167-199.DOI : 10.1017/S0332586500000159

Skopeteas, S. 2008. Grammaticalization and sets of form-function pairs: Encoding spatial concepts in Greek. In: Verhoeven, E., S. Skopeteas et al. (eds) Studies on Grammaticalization , Trends in Linguistics – Studies and Monographs 205 . Mouton de Gruyter, 25–58.

Slobin, D. 2004. The many ways to search for a frog: linguistic typology and the expression of motion events. In: Strömqvist, S. L. Verhoeven (eds.) Relating events in narratives: typological and contextual perspectives . Mahwah, New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 219-257.

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by: Bluegold Research
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Natural Gas Fundamentals
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Summary

United States has produced some 2,423 bcf of natural gas in June this year (+11.0 y-o-y).

On a 12-month average basis, production growth rate is about to reach a mid-term peak.

Natural gas producers hate current prices.

Large charts gallery is attached (scroll down to see more).

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has recently released their natural gas monthly statistics for April 2018 , but traders are looking for more recent data. In this article, we will briefly review our estimates for dry gas production and imports for the month of June, then look at our latest estimates for July and conclude with our forecast for August and September. We will also provide a brief overview of producers positioning in futures market.

JUNE OVERVIEW

According to our estimates, the United States produced a total of 2,423 bcf of natural gas in June 2018. More than two thirds of that volume (or 67.16% ) was produced in shale plays ( Antrim , Bakken , Woodford , Barnett , Fayetteville , Eagle Ford , Haynesville , Marcellus , Utica , Permian – see the map in the chart section below). The rest ( 32.84% ) was produced in tight gas formations and offshore – specifically, in the Gulf of Mexico .

The share of shale gas production has been increasing almost uninterruptedly since April 2001, a trend, which does not seem to show any signs of slowing down. Indeed, in just the last year, the weight of “unconventional” dry gas output has increased by 4.6 percentage points (see chart 1 in the Charts Section below).

As before, Marcellus basin remains the top dry gas extraction area in the U.S. More than a quarter ( 25.1% ) of all dry gas and more than a third ( 37.4% ) of all shale dry gas produced in the U.S., is extracted here (see chart 2). However, over the past two years, other areas have grown in importance as well – notably, Haynesville , Utica and Permian . Eagle Ford also remains one of the hottest shale resource place, but its share in the overall production has been declining. Together, these top five areas – Marcellus , Permian , Haynesville , Utica and Eagle Ford – account for 53.7% of all dry gas and for about 80% of all shale dry gas produced in the U.S. (see chart 3).

According to our estimates, the United States imported a total of 244 bcf of natural gas in June 2018. Some 97% of that volume came via pipelines from Canada, the rest ( 3% ) was imported by LNG tankers. Total natural gas supply in June was 2,667 bcf .

On a daily basis, production averaged 80.8 bcf/d ( +11% y-o-y ). The annual growth rate has slowed from 12% in May to 11% in June due to base effects. Imports averaged 8.13 bcf/d (+1.8% y-o-y ). On a 12-month average basis, imports growth has been negative for four consecutive months now, while the production growth rate is about to reach a mid-term peak (see chart 4).

The inventory of drilled, but uncompleted wells (DUCs) continues to rise. As of June, there were a total of 7,943 DUCs in seven key shale areas ( Anadarko , Appalachia , Bakken , Eagle Ford , Haynesville , Niobrara and Permian ), 1,979 or 33.2% more than in June 2017 (see chart 5). However, the lion's share of that growth has been concentrated in oil-dominant areas (specifically, in Permian basin ), while the growth in gas-dominant regions has been a lot less impressive.

Indeed, the total number of DUCs in Appalachia and Haynesville has been essentially flat since December 2016 (see chart 6). The difference between “wells drilled” and “wells completed” has been negative for four consecutive months now (see chart 7), meaning that DUCs inventory is likely to continue declining.

ESTIMATES AND FORECAST

Production continues to expand – especially, in Permian and Marcellus regions. We estimate that total dry gas production will average around 81.4 bcf/d in July ( +11.0% y-o-y ). We also estimate that imports will average 8.3 bcf/d ( +2.2% y-o-y ). Therefore, according to our preliminary estimates, total supply will amount to 2,780 bcf or 89.7 bcf/d ( +10.0% y-o-y ) in July 2018.

We expect total supply to continue expanding in August and September, but annual growth rate will slow. Currently, we expect dry gas production to average 82.0 bcf/d in August and 82.7 bcf/d in September. We expect imports to average 8.2 bcf/d in August and 8.0 bcf/d in September (see charts 8 and 9).

PRODUCERS POSITIONING

Natural gas producers are heavily long natural gas – i.e., they are not hedging their production. What does it mean? Let’s study the following two charts to see if we can find the answer. Notice the signs: A1, A2, A3, B1, B2 and B3.

So, the important question is – has the production now reached a mid-term peak? The short and simple answer is – maybe. In any case, it is too early to confidently claim that it has. As already mentioned above, we still currently expect production to continue expanding, but annual growth will definitely slow. Most recently, our models started to yield lower figures – especially for the month of August. We are monitoring the situation closely and we are updating our production forecast every single day (consider signing up, if interested – see the link below).

CHARTS SECTION

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chart 3

Chart 4

Chart 5

Chart 6

Chart 7

Chart 8

Chart 9

Thank you for reading our monthly report. We also write a daily update of our forecast for key natural gas variables: weather, production, consumption, exports, and imports. Interested in getting this daily update? Sign up for Natural Gas Fundamentals , our Marketplace service, to get the most critical natural gas data.

I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

April 23, 2013 Security Type:

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This is badly in need of an update - some of us have Android 4.2!

Blair Mueller

Hi Roger - You are right, this does need updating! We're working on it as we speak. It should be updated in the next couple of days.

All updated :)

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